A world of uncertainty
Over the last quarter, there have been some sensational headlines that have led to rising investor uncertainty; however, the US share market continues to defy gravity with the S&P500 reaching a record new high valuation.
Greater than forecast inflation, rapidly rising energy prices, a slowing Chinese economy and the US Federal Reserve commencing tapering (ending Quantitative Easing (QE)) are currently the largest “tail risk” concerns. Tail risk means the chance of a large loss occurring due to a rare event. An example would be Lehman’s Brothers collapse leading to the Global Financial Crisis.
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